Sunday, September 26, 2004

War Updates (USA and Iran)

Back to reality.

Yes, we are at War, and Yes, Evil people want to do great harm to us and our allies.

I think many Americans are concerned about a Madrid replay here in the States.

Where would it be? The heartland -- Bush Country? How and When will it occur -- a spectacular attack on our infrastructure the Sunday before our election November 2?

Two powerful paragraphs from Michael Novak relay sobering insights from Spain's former Prime Minister:

Former Prime Minister of Spain, Jose Maria Aznar, spoke at breakfast Friday morning at AEI and predicted three spectacular terrorist events in the near future. First, a major destructive action in the United States before election day on November 2, possibly during the last 72 hours, for massive effect in causing confusion and commotion. Second, a dramatic escalation of action in Iraq leading up to November 2, and again in late December and early January to head off the Iraqi election at the end of January. Third, a spectacular attack in the United Kingdom next May to disrupt the re-election campaign of PM Tony Blair.

(I'm not convinced there will not be yet a fourth -- another attempt to bring down a stalwart US ally, Australian Prime Minister John Howard -- although the Evil Ones have already tried to destablize Australian voters' thinking back on September 9, precisely one month before the October 9 election date.)

I do not subscribe to the "last 72 hours" theory. America is not Spain (or France or Germany for that matter).

An attack in the "last 72 hours" would ensure victory for W in my thinking (and a landslide at that). Americans tend to rally, not run, and Kerry simply wouldn't have time to respond in any manner Americans would swallow.

On the other hand, an attack in the first week of October, along with Kerry's continued shameless attempts to do anything to win might provide a more complicated dynamic. He could play on the theme that Bush has made the world less safe with his "diversion" into Iraq, and now the terrorists are bringing the War to our shores just as W said they would not since we have been fighting them (self-evidently ineffectively Kerry would argue) in the streets of Baghdad and Fallujah.

Of course, then again, W could release the full force and fury of US might against IslamoFascist cesspools in the Middle East with surgically (given the shortness of time and Iraq-focused resources) aggressive application.

This leads to the Big Question: Would Iran remain unscathed in any US response to any attack on America?

It should not:

Iran said today it has successfully test-fired a long-range "strategic missile" and delivered it to its armed forces, saying it is now prepared to deal with any regional threats and even the "big powers." . . .

[Iranian military maneuvers are] seen as a signal to Washington [that] Tehran is prepared to fight back against any attempts to prevent the development of a nuclear reactor that could be used to make weapons-grade plutonium. . . .

Iran may be only weeks or months away from activating the reactor.

Fortunately we are sending signals that Israel will be "empowered" [how's that for a politically correct term? -- Ed.] to protect herself.

After all, the US State Department has stated in understandable language:

"The rush to convert 37 tons of yellowcake into feed-stock for centrifuge enrichment has no peaceful justification. ... Thirty-seven tons of yellowcake is not a test. It is a production run."